| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Houston will be on March 28, 2026. It matters for local planning, weather risk management, energy demand forecasting, and anyone following short-term climate variability in the Gulf Coast region.
Houston sits in a humid subtropical climate with strong springtime variability: late March can swing from cool, frontal conditions to warm, humid onshore flow depending on the synoptic pattern. Local factors such as cloud cover, precipitation, and the timing of any frontal passages often drive day-to-day extremes during this transition season.
Market prices (odds) for this event represent participants' aggregated expectations about what the official highest temperature reading will be; they update as new forecasts and observations arrive and are not guarantees of the final outcome. To interpret this market, compare the market's consensus to operational weather forecasts and to the contract's defined measurement source and settlement rules.
The contract's settlement clause will specify the official data provider and station(s); markets like this commonly reference NOAA/NWS automated station observations (ASOS/AWOS) or a named municipal station. Check the KALSHI contract text for the exact data source and station identifier that will be used for settlement.
The listing shows the close as TBD; typically a market closes before the observation date or at a scheduled time, and final settlement occurs after the relevant day's official observations are published. Consult the market page and contract terms for the precise close time and the settlement timetable.
That depends on the contract definition: some markets use a single designated station, others use a composite or a specified geographic area. The settlement rules in the contract will state whether the value comes from a particular station, an official NWS daily summary, or another specified method—review those rules to know which reading determines the result.
Monitor model trends for frontal timing, surface wind direction, cloud/precipitation forecasts, and the strength/position of ridging or troughing aloft. Short-range model ensembles, coastal observations, and forecast soundings in the 24–72 hour window are especially informative for predicting the daytime peak.
Late March is a transitional month with wide interannual variability: some years feature early-season warm spells and others see lingering cool air from continental outbreaks. Climatology provides a baseline for what's typical for that date, but synoptic-scale drivers determine whether a given year will be near, above, or below that baseline.