| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest recorded for Houston on March 27, 2026, as observed by the market's designated official source. It matters because daily maximums integrate short‑term weather dynamics and are useful for weather risk management, energy planning, and local impact assessment.
Late March in Houston sits in the transition between cool season and spring, so day‑to‑day highs can swing depending on frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and early warm spells. Historic variability means some years see near‑winter readings while others have unseasonable warmth; long‑term climate trends raise baseline temperatures but day‑to‑day outcomes are driven by synoptic weather patterns.
Market odds represent traders' aggregate expectations about which temperature bucket will be the officially recorded high for the specified station and date; they update as forecasts, observations, and new information arrive. Treat odds as a real‑time summary of belief rather than a definitive forecast—check the event rules to see which observational source will be used for settlement.
The market will settle using the observational source specified in the event rules on the platform; if the event page does not name a station, settlement typically follows an NWS‑designated official station for the Houston metro area. Check the event description or contact the market operator for the exact station and dataset used.
Settlement timing follows the publication schedule of the designated observational source. Daily maximums are often available the same day or the next calendar day after quality control, but final settlement may wait for any official corrections; consult the event page for the market's stated settlement delay or procedures.
A front arriving before peak daytime heating can bring cooler air and reduce the high, while a front that stalls or passes after peak heating has less effect. Timing relative to mid‑afternoon is critical: early arrival typically lowers the daily maximum, late arrival may have little impact.
Urban heat island, pavement, and local land use can raise readings at some stations compared with nearby rural sites; instrument exposure, maintenance, and tree cover also matter. Since settlement follows the designated station, local siting can meaningfully influence which temperature bucket is recorded.
Fallback procedures depend on the market's rules: common approaches include using a nearby official station, using NWS quality‑controlled analyses, or following a formal correction published by the data provider. The event description should state the precedence for missing or invalid data; contact the platform for clarification if it's not specified.