| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest air temperature observed in Houston on March 26, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, public health messaging, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions in the region.
Late March in Houston is a transition month with large day-to-day variability driven by the clash of Gulf-origin warmth and continental cold fronts; some years produce near-summer heat while others remain cool and unsettled. Historical records and climatological averages provide useful context, but synoptic weather patterns in the days before March 26 typically determine the realized maximum.
Market odds reflect traders’ collective assessment of which temperature range will contain the observed maximum; interpret them as a snapshot of market sentiment, not as a fixed forecast. Always consult the market rules for how the observed temperature is defined and which observing station will be authoritative.
The market will settle to the official observing station specified in its terms; commonly that is an NWS ASOS or COOP station serving Houston—check the market description for the exact station used for settlement.
Settlement typically uses the local calendar day for Houston (the 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59 local time on March 26, 2026); verify the market rules to confirm the precise measurement interval and time zone reference.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bucket or threshold specified on the market page; the realized highest temperature will be assigned to the bucket that contains that observed value according to the market’s outcome definitions.
Settlement uses the specific data source named in the market terms; if multiple datasets differ, the designated authoritative source in the market description governs resolution—contact the platform if the market terms are ambiguous.
Short-term synoptic changes near the day of March 26 can materially shift the expected maximum: an unexpected front, convective cloud cover, or timing of sea-breeze onset can lower the peak, while early clearing or persistent southerly flow can raise it; that is why traders often monitor up-to-date model runs and observations in the 48 hours before the event.