| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range will contain the highest air temperature observed in Houston on March 25, 2026. It matters to traders and to weather‑sensitive sectors (energy, transport, outdoor events) that respond to same‑day temperature outcomes.
March in Houston is a transitional month with a wide range of possible temperatures driven by spring frontal passages and Gulf moisture; year‑to‑year variability can be large. Markets like this are resolved against an official observing station and reflect the intersection of climatology, short‑range forecasts, and local observation practices.
Market prices provide a real‑time, collective view of which temperature range traders expect to be the daily maximum, but settlement is based solely on the official observational record and the event’s stated resolution rules.
Close time is listed on the KALSHI market page (currently TBD); settlement occurs after the official observational record for March 25, 2026 is available and within the platform’s stated resolution window—check the market page for the exact settlement schedule.
The market’s resolution source and specific station are specified on the event page; KALSHI typically names an official NWS/NOAA observing station (for example an ASOS/AWOS at a Houston airport) — consult the event description for the exact data source.
It is the maximum air temperature recorded at the designated observing station during the local calendar day of March 25, 2026 (00:00–23:59 local time at that station), as reported in the official observational data used for settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature ranges (bins) listed on the market page; the outcome whose range contains the official daily maximum temperature for March 25, 2026 is the winning outcome.
Resolution normally uses final quality‑controlled observations; if post‑event corrections or disputes occur, KALSHI’s stated dispute and settlement policies determine any adjustments—refer to the market rules for details on corrections and tie‑breaking procedures.