| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Houston on March 24, 2026 will be. Single‑day temperature outcomes matter for energy demand, event planning, and short‑term weather risk management.
Houston sits in a humid subtropical climate where late‑March temperatures can swing between cool and unseasonably warm depending on synoptic weather patterns. Year‑to‑year variability is influenced by the timing of cold fronts, Gulf moisture, and broader seasonal drivers such as ENSO and long‑term warming trends. This contract measures a single calendar date maximum, so it is sensitive to the exact observing station and reporting rules the market uses.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations and available forecast information at a point in time and will change as new model runs and observations arrive. Use odds as a summary of market sentiment and update your view as forecasts and official observations evolve.
The contract’s settlement rules name the official data source and station that will be used; KALSHI typically references official public surface observations (NOAA/NWS datasets) and will specify the exact observing location in the contract terms — check the market’s settlement specification before trading.
Settlement normally uses the calendar date as recorded by the reporting station in its local time zone (midnight-to-midnight local time for the station). Be sure to confirm the contract’s time‑window definition and note that local daylight saving time will apply on that date.
'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not yet published the market close time; final trading and official settlement timings will be posted on the market page and governed by the contract rules. Settlement itself occurs after the official observing data are published and verified by the exchange.
Historical climatology and local normals provide a baseline expectation and show typical variability for late March, but they do not preclude short‑term extremes driven by specific synoptic events. Use historical context alongside current model forecasts and recent trends to form a view.
Updated numerical weather model runs, short‑range ensemble outlooks, announcements of an approaching frontal system or tropical influence, and near‑term observational trends (satellite, surface reports) will be the primary drivers of market moves as the date approaches.