| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed air temperature in Houston will be on March 23, 2026. It matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and observers tracking seasonal and synoptic variability in the region.
Late March in Houston is a transitional period when warm Gulf air can be interrupted by cool frontal passages; day-to-day highs depend heavily on the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and moisture. Longer-term climate trends and the state of large-scale patterns (e.g., ENSO) set a background tendency, while short-term weather systems determine the actual daily maximum.
Market prices reflect the market’s collective expectation about which temperature outcome will be observed; they move as forecasts, observations, and trader views change. Always check the contract rules to understand exactly which observation and rounding conventions determine the winning outcome.
The contract's resolution source specifies the official dataset and station used to determine the daily maximum; consult the market rules on the event page to see which NOAA/NWS station or instrument (for example, a specified ASOS site) is designated.
Resolution occurs once the designated official daily maximum for March 23, 2026 is available and any contractual waiting period has passed; the market rules state the precise resolution timing and whether additional verification time is allowed.
The event page lists the available outcomes and how they map to exact values or ranges; check the contract details for units, any rounding conventions, and the boundaries that separate outcomes.
Large-scale patterns (such as ENSO phase and the jet-stream configuration) and the seasonal cycle influence the background temperature distribution, but the actual daily maximum is primarily controlled by the short-term synoptic setup and local factors on that specific date.
The contract includes an alternate-resolution procedure for missing or disputed observations (for example, use of an alternate official station or a quality-controlled NOAA dataset); review the event's resolution and dispute rules for the exact fallback process.