| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Houston on March 22, 2026. It matters because daily high temperatures reflect short‑term weather patterns and can influence energy demand, public health advisories, and outdoor activity planning.
Houston’s late‑March weather is influenced by the transition from winter to spring, with large swings possible depending on the position of fronts, Gulf moisture, and synoptic‑scale patterns. Climate trends (including long‑term warming) and interannual variability such as El Niño/La Niña can shift the odds of warmer or cooler outcomes compared with historical norms. This specific market will resolve based on the official observing station and rules stated on the Kalshi event page.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant expectations about which temperature range will be highest on that date; they are a real‑time signal of collective forecasts, not a deterministic forecast. Use prices alongside meteorological forecasts and the market’s resolution rules to form an overall view.
The market will resolve according to the official data source and station defined in the event’s resolution rules on Kalshi; commonly this is a National Weather Service ASOS/COOP station (e.g., an official Houston airport site), so check the event page for the specified instrument and dataset.
The event listing shows closes as TBD. Final resolution normally occurs after the calendar date once the designated official temperature observation is published; the exact close and resolution timetable are specified on the Kalshi event page.
This market has six distinct, non‑overlapping outcome bins that partition possible highest temperatures for that date; the event page lists the numeric breakpoints for each outcome and those definitions govern resolution.
Watch national and regional model guidance (GFS, ECMWF), frontal timing, upper‑level pattern (ridge/trough), forecast cloud cover and precipitation probability, surface wind direction (onshore vs. offshore), and local temperature/dewpoint trends from official forecast offices.
Yes—differences in station elevation, exposure, urban heat effects, and maintenance can lead to varying readings; only the station and measurement method specified in the market’s rules determine the official outcome, so compare nearby observations with that official site.