| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will represent the highest air temperature recorded in Houston on March 21, 2026. It matters for traders and weather observers because day-to-day temperature extremes are driven by forecastable atmospheric patterns and can affect energy demand, public health, and local operations.
Houston's late-March temperatures are influenced by the clash between lingering cool air from continental systems and warm, moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico; annual and multi-year variability (including large-scale climate patterns) can shift odds for warmer or cooler outcomes. This market is run on Kalshi and will settle according to the official data source and settlement rules specified on the event page.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which pre-defined temperature range will contain the daily maximum; interpret them as the market's consensus view, not guarantees. Always check the market's settlement source and exact definition of 'highest temperature' before trading.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; Kalshi will publish a final close/settlement time on the market page prior to resolution—monitor the market for updates.
The market's settlement source and specific reporting station should be listed in the event's official rules on Kalshi; markets typically reference a designated NOAA/NWS observing site or other official dataset—confirm the listed source before trading.
The event's settlement terms define whether the maximum is a single instantaneous air-temperature observation, a minute/5-minute average, and which local calendar day/time zone applies; check the market's settlement criteria on Kalshi for the exact definition.
Kalshi's published settlement rules explain contingency procedures: they typically rely on the designated official data source and describe alternatives (such as backup stations or official revisions) or cancellation policies if the primary data are unavailable.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a defined temperature range listed on the event page; when choosing between adjacent ranges, consider recent model runs, ensemble spread, expected frontal timing, and local effects that could shift the daily maximum across a boundary.