| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be recorded as the highest temperature in Houston on March 20, 2026. It matters because outcomes track a concrete meteorological observation that reflects day-to-day weather and seasonal variability in a major U.S. city.
Houston's weather in late March is seasonally transitional, so a single day can be shaped by either lingering cool air masses or early spring warmth. Local factors — Gulf moisture, sea-breeze development, and synoptic-scale patterns such as frontal passages or upper-level ridges — routinely drive wide swings from one year to the next. Long-term climate trends have also increased the frequency of unusually warm days, but daily outcomes remain dominated by the immediate weather pattern.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which discrete outcome will match the official recorded maximum temperature on that date; they are not official weather observations. Use the market to learn how participants interpret the same meteorological signals, and always confirm the market's stated measurement rules before trading.
The market must specify the official data source and station in its rules; if it does not, check the event page or platform documentation. Many markets use the National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) official climate station designated for the city—confirm which station (for example, an airport or NOAA coop site) the market accepts before using the market's quotes.
Finalization typically occurs after the official daily climate report for March 20 is published by the designated data source (for example, NWS/NOAA), once any quality-control processes are complete. The exact timing depends on the platform's settlement procedures, so consult the market page for the operator's stated finalization timeline.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature category or exact value as listed on the market page; map the observed maximum to the outcome whose defined range includes that value. If the outcome labels or boundaries are unclear, contact the platform or refer to the market's official rules for precise mapping.
Late March is a transitional period with a history of both cool and warm days; climatology provides a baseline expectation and shows substantial interannual variability. Use historical daily maximums and recent seasonal trends to contextualize whether a particular forecasted value would be typical or notable, while remembering that day-to-day weather depends on transient synoptic conditions.
The market will use the value from the official data source and station specified in its rules. If the market document allows multiple sources, it should define precedence or a tie-breaking procedure; if that is not clear, ask the platform operator for the settlement protocol before relying on market positions.