| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest official temperature observed in Houston on March 2, 2026; it matters to energy, agriculture, event planning, and anyone exposed to short-term weather risk. The market condenses many forecast signals into a single tradable view of that day's peak temperature.
Houston's early March climate sits in a transition season where chilly intrusions from the north can alternate with warm Gulf-influenced surges, producing substantial day-to-day variability. Long-term warming trends have shifted baseline temperatures upward, but single-day outcomes remain governed by synoptic-scale weather patterns and local mesoscale effects. Historical records and recent climatology provide context but do not determine a single day's maximum.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of competing information sources — models, observations, and trader expectations — and update as new forecast data arrives. Use the market price as a near-real-time signal of consensus direction, keeping in mind it can change quickly when the weather pattern evolves.
The resolution will use the official observation source specified in the event rules (for example an NWS ASOS/COOP station or a defined municipal dataset); check the event's resolution clause to see which station, timestamp, and averaging period are used to determine the daily maximum.
'Closes: TBD' means the organizer has not yet set the market's trading cutoff; settlement typically occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the stated observation source, and the market will announce the closing and settlement timing according to its rules.
Common official sources include NWS stations at Houston Intercontinental (IAH), William P. Hobby (HOU), and local COOP stations; the event page will state which specific station or combined dataset is authoritative for settlement.
A building upper-level ridge, persistent southerly low-level flow from the Gulf, clear skies allowing strong daytime heating, and absence of a frontal passage through Houston would all favor a higher peak temperature that day.
Broad synoptic tendency is often clear about 4–7 days ahead, deterministic model detail improves within 2–4 days, and day-of (0–24 hour) observations and high-resolution models provide the best refinement for the exact timing and magnitude of the daily peak.