| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the maximum air temperature observed in Houston on March 19, 2026. Outcomes matter to weather-sensitive users (energy, agriculture, events) and reflect expectations about that day’s synoptic and local conditions.
The date sits in early spring, a season that can produce large swings in Houston between cool, frontal periods and warm, moist Gulf-influenced spells. Interacting factors include large-scale patterns (e.g., storm tracks), Gulf moisture, and local mesoscale influences such as sea-breeze effects and urban heat. Markets for single-day weather extremes are updated frequently as forecast models and observations evolve.
Market odds express the collective judgement of participants about which temperature outcome will be observed and will change as new model runs and observations arrive. Use odds as a dynamic signal tied to incoming weather information, not as a static forecast.
Settlement is determined by the market contract’s official data source and station designation; typically that is an official NWS/ASOS/METAR observation at a specified Houston weather station. Check the contract rules for the designated observing site, rounding conventions, and the authoritative agency used for settlement.
The contract defines the measurement window (for example, local calendar day or UTC day) and the timezone used. Confirm the contract’s definition of the observation period; many weather contracts use local standard time for the designated station.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; once set, the market will close at that published time. Settlement typically occurs after the designated data source publishes the official daily temperature (often the next day when official daily summaries are available), but exact settlement timing is specified in the contract.
Rain and persistent clouds reduce solar heating and limit daytime temperature rise, lowering the likely maximum; an overcast morning can delay peak heating into late afternoon (or prevent it entirely). Conversely, a dry, sunny day favors higher maxima. The net effect depends on timing and intensity of precipitation/cloud cover relative to the daytime heating cycle.
Use the contract’s designated observing-station history and climate normals, recent years’ March maxima for Houston, NWS local forecast discussions, and operational model guidance (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, high-resolution mesoscale models). Also monitor real-time observations (ASOS/METAR) and short-term updates as model runs and observations arrive in the days before March 19.