| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed air temperature in Houston will be on March 18, 2026. It matters for hedging weather-sensitive operations, planning outdoor events, and expressing views on short-term regional weather variability.
Houston sits in a humid subtropical climate where early spring temperatures can swing rapidly due to fronts, Gulf moisture, and changing upper‑level patterns. March weather in the region is influenced by the proximity of the Gulf of Mexico, the timing of spring cold fronts, and occasional late‑season warm spells.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the day’s peak temperature as defined by the contract; they should be interpreted as the crowd’s view of which pre‑specified outcome will be realized given available information and uncertainty.
Settlement will use the official observation source named on the Kalshi contract page (for example, a specific NWS/airport station); check the market details to see the exact station and dataset referenced.
The contract uses the 24‑hour local calendar date defined in the market terms—i.e., the official local reporting period for Houston as specified on the contract (local Central Time, including any applicable daylight saving rules).
The six outcomes correspond to pre‑defined temperature bins or exact values stated on the market page; consult the contract listing for the exact ranges or labels that determine which outcome is realized.
Close time is listed as TBD on the event header; settlement typically occurs after the designated official agency publishes the day’s final temperature summary—see the market page for closing and settlement timing.
Watch short‑range model forecasts for frontal timing, local temperature and dew point trends, cloud cover and precipitation forecasts, sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Gulf, and any official NWS statements that could change expected conditions.