| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest observed in Houston on March 17, 2026; it matters because the daily high affects energy demand, public health planning, and weather-sensitive operations in the region.
Mid‑March in Houston is a transitional period when warm, humid Gulf air can be displaced by occasional cool continental fronts, so conditions can swing from mild to unusually warm depending on synoptic setup. Long‑term climate trends have raised seasonal baselines, but the realized high on a given day is primarily determined by the short‑term pattern in the days leading up to March 17 and by the officially designated observing site.
Market odds reflect the aggregate expectations of participants about which temperature outcome will occur and will update as forecasts and observations evolve; they are a real‑time signal of consensus expectations, not a certainty.
Settlement will use the maximum air temperature as measured and reported by the data source specified on the market page; that is typically the highest official observation recorded during the relevant local calendar day at the designated station.
The market page lists the designated reporting station or agency used for settlement; if not explicitly listed there, the exchange's published settlement policy governs the chosen official data source—check the event description for the named source before trading.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin or specified value range shown on the event page; only the outcome whose interval contains the observed maximum temperature will settle as the winner.
'On Mar 17' normally refers to the local calendar day in Houston (Central Time) from 00:00:00 through 23:59:59 unless the event description states an alternative window—verify the event rules to confirm the exact settlement timeframe.
The market will follow the exchange's contingency and settlement procedures, which typically specify fallback data sources (alternate nearby stations, provisional/quality‑checked observations, or authoritative reanalysis) — review the settlement policy on the market page for the exact fallback rules.