| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Houston on March 16, 2026 will be, letting traders express expectations about how warm that specific calendar day will be at the designated reporting location. Outcomes matter for local energy demand, public safety planning, and short-term weather risk assessment.
Houston in mid-March sits in a transition season where temperatures can swing from cool, post-frontal conditions to unseasonably warm days under Pacific or ridge influences. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by synoptic-scale patterns (frontal passages, Gulf moisture, ridging) and by which official observing station the market uses for settlement. Historical variability means both mild and early-season warm extremes are possible on a single date.
Market prices summarize the collective expectation of traders based on available model guidance, observations, and news; they update as forecasts and observations change. Consult the market's settlement rules and the underlying observational data source to interpret what a given price implies about market consensus.
The event's settlement depends on the market's specified data source and station; check the event rules for the exact observing site and the definition of the measurement window (local calendar day, UTC cutoffs, and whether official NWS airport observations are used).
The listing shows a closing time of TBD; the final outcome will be determined after the designated observational agency publishes its official daily temperature for the specified station and date, and markets typically allow a short period for any required quality control before settlement—see the event page for precise timing.
Mid‑March in Houston often sees a wide range of highs—from cool, post-frontal days to mild or warm days under early spring ridging—so historical daily highs commonly span that variability; definitive historical records for March 16 can be found in NCEI or local climate archives if you want exact past values.
A strong south to southwest low-level flow ahead of a building ridge, limited cloud cover, and dry air advection from land or downslope warming would favor an anomalously warm maximum temperature.
A cold frontal passage bringing northerly flow, widespread cloud cover and/or steady rain, or persistent onshore flow from the Gulf would suppress daytime heating and push the daily maximum toward the cooler end of the outcome range.