| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature value will be recorded as the highest temperature in Houston on March 15, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature drives weather-related risk, energy demand, and short-term weather exposure decisions for residents and businesses.
Houston's March temperatures sit in a transitional season influenced by Gulf moisture, passing frontal systems, and variable sunshine; individual days can range from cool, rainy conditions behind a front to unseasonably warm air masses from the south. Local factors—urban heat island, sea-breeze circulations, and the exact timing of synoptic features—produce significant day-to-day variability. Forecasts for a specific calendar date combine short-range model guidance, observations, and climatological context.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which predefined temperature bucket will be the highest on that date; interpret odds as consensus sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes. For final resolution details always consult the contract’s official rules on Kalshi, which specify the observing source and time window used.
The contract's official rules on Kalshi specify the resolving source (for example a named NWS station, ASOS/AWOS observation, or a specific dataset). Traders should check the event's contract page for the exact designated station or dataset before trading.
The contract rules define the time window used for the calendar day—typically the local calendar day at the designated observing site—but you must confirm the precise start and end times on the Kalshi contract page because resolution uses that defined window.
The market resolves to the single source named in the contract. If multiple stations or datasets exist, the contract text will state which one governs resolution and how discrepancies are handled.
Whether preliminary or final/quality-controlled values are used is specified in the contract. Some contracts use the preliminary observation on the day, others wait for a final QC’d value; check the contract’s resolution and dispute clauses to see if later adjustments apply.
Review long-term daily normals and recent year-to-year variability for mid-March, historical earliest/latest warmings and cool spells, and past records for March 15. Also examine typical synoptic influences for mid-March (frontal frequency, gulf moisture) and recent seasonal forecasts that could bias the range of plausible outcomes.