| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature measured for Houston will be on March 14, 2026; it matters because daily temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health, and local weather impacts. Traders use this event to express views about short-term weather outcomes for a specific date and location.
Daily maximum temperature in Houston is driven by regional weather patterns such as the position of fronts, highs and lows, and Gulf of Mexico air masses; seasonal transition in mid-March can produce either unseasonably warm afternoons or cooler conditions depending on timing. Historical variability in early spring means the same calendar date can see a wide range of outcomes from year to year, and forecasters rely on model trends and observations in the days leading up to the date.
Market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations about the resolved highest temperature as defined by the contract; they are a real-time signal but do not replace official meteorological records. To know exactly how the event will be settled, consult the contract resolution rules on the platform.
The precise observing station(s) or dataset used for resolution are specified in the contract terms on the event page; platforms commonly reference an official NWS/NOAA station representative of the city. Check the event's resolution rules to see the designated station and dataset.
Resolution typically occurs after the end of the local calendar day once the designated station's daily maximum is available and any routine quality-control processes are applied; the event page or contract will state whether preliminary or final NWS/NCEI values are used and the expected timing of settlement.
The contract defines the geographic point of measurement; many contracts use a single official airport or NWS station to represent the city rather than an average across the metro area. Refer to the event description for the exact definition.
Key short-term changes include the arrival or delay of a cold front, rapid amplification or flattening of an upper-level ridge, sudden increases in cloud cover or precipitation, and shifts from offshore to onshore winds that alter daytime heating.
The contract's resolution rules describe fallback procedures: operators typically follow official agency guidance, which may use alternate nearby stations, quality-controlled NCEI records, or documented adjustments; check the event page for the specific tie-breaker and missing-data protocols.