| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest observed in Houston on March 13, 2026; it matters for short-term weather risk, energy demand planning, and event or agricultural decisions tied to that date.
Houston in mid-March is in a transitional season, so temperatures can swing sharply depending on the timing of fronts and Gulf moisture; long-term climate trends have increased the frequency of unusually warm days but individual-day outcomes remain driven by synoptic weather patterns. Historical March variability means forecasts can change notably in the days before the date as model runs resolve frontal timing and cloud/precip signals.
Market odds reflect the aggregate views of traders reacting to forecasts and new observations; they update as model guidance, satellite/radar data, and official observations change. Treat market prices as a real-time summary of expectation, not a deterministic forecast.
Settlement will use the precise definition on the contract page; typically this means the official highest observed air temperature at the listed station or dataset during the UTC-defined calendar day, so check the contract for the specified station, averaging, and time-standard.
The contract should list the official station or dataset used for settlement; if it is not shown on the market page, the platform’s rules specify which authoritative source (such as the designated NWS station or an official archive) will be used—confirm that before trading.
The market close time is shown on the trading platform (currently listed as TBD), and the close determines the last moment you can enter positions; if close is before the observation day, prices will reflect only pre-event forecasts, whereas a close after the date allows trading during the observation period if permitted.
Traders typically watch synoptic model guidance (global and ensemble fields), short-range convection-allowing models, surface analyses for fronts, satellite/radar trends on the event day, and official NWS forecasts—changes in those inputs drive rapid re-pricing as the date approaches.
Resolution in cases of missing or ambiguous data follows the platform’s dispute and adjudication procedures: they rely on the pre-specified primary source, and if that source is unavailable will follow backup rules (such as using the nearest official station or archived reanalysis) as detailed in the market’s settlement terms.