| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest observed air temperature in Houston on March 12, 2026; outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges. The result matters for energy demand, outdoor event planning, and local weather risk management.
Houston sits in a humid subtropical climate where early March is a transitional month; temperatures can swing between cool, frontal-influenced days and early warm spells driven by Gulf moisture and ridging. Seasonal influences such as large-scale circulation patterns and recent climate trends affect the baseline, but single-day outcomes are strongly driven by synoptic-scale weather that can change rapidly.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature range is most likely to be observed and will update as forecasts and observations change. Always consult the market's settlement rules to understand how the final official temperature will be determined.
Settlement uses the station or dataset specified in the market's rules—commonly an official NWS/NOAA observing site (ASOS/COOP) for the Houston metro area—so check the event page or rulebook for the exact station and dataset that will be final.
The governing time window (for example the local calendar day or a specific 24-hour UTC period) is defined in the market's settlement criteria; verify those rules because some markets use local time while others use UTC or a defined observation window.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the market will announce a final trading close and the settlement typically occurs after the designated observing agency publishes the official daily summary—consult the event page for posted deadlines and settlement timing once announced.
As operational models, ensemble forecasts, and surface observations converge on a consistent scenario (e.g., a frontal passage or warm ridge), market prices will adjust to reflect the changing expected outcome; higher model agreement and stable observations usually lead to more persistent price moves.
Historical Mar 12 observations and local climatology provide context on typical variability and extremes for that calendar date and can help identify how unusual a given forecast would be; combine climatology with current seasonal signals and analog synoptic patterns rather than relying on historical averages alone.