| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° or above | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 73° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete outcomes will correspond to the highest temperature recorded in Houston on March 11, 2026. It matters for participants hedging weather exposure and for observers tracking short-range temperature forecast skill.
Houston in March is a transitional month influenced by Gulf moisture, frontal passages, and variable springtime patterns, so day-to-day highs can swing noticeably. Historical variability and the choice of official observation site both affect what will be recorded as the day's maximum.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature-bin will be the maximum; they update as forecasts and observations change and should be read as real-time signals rather than guarantees.
The market will settle to the official temperature value specified in the contract terms; that definition typically names a particular observation network or station (for example an NWS/ASOS station) and any rounding rules—check the contract description on the market page for the definitive source and measurement protocol.
The contract description on the exchange specifies the reporting station or dataset used for settlement; if multiple sites are possible the rules will identify the authoritative source (for example a named airport station or an NWS consolidated dataset)—review the market details on KALSHI to confirm.
The market page shows the trading close time (currently listed as TBD) and the settlement timing; settlement generally occurs after the official daily maximum is posted and any verification window ends, so expect settlement to follow publication of the authoritative observations—check the market listing for final times.
The exact outcome bins and any rounding/convention are laid out in the contract terms on the market page; those specifications define the numeric thresholds for each of the six outcomes and are the authoritative source for determining which outcome wins.
Monitor short-range numerical model runs (e.g., operational ensembles and high-resolution models), NWS local forecasts and discussions for Houston, satellite and radar for cloud/precip trends, surface observations for evolving temperature trends, and synoptic indicators such as approaching fronts or anomalous Gulf moisture—these inputs typically drive changes in near-term temperature expectations.