| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Houston on March 10, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, public health planning, and local weather risk assessments.
Houston in early March sits in a transition season where synoptic patterns can bring either lingering winter air or early spring warmth; this creates larger day-to-day variability than in midsummer. Long-term climate trends have raised baseline temperatures, but single-day highs remain controlled by immediate weather systems such as fronts, Gulf moisture, and jet-stream position.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of how likely each listed temperature outcome is, updating as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time synthesis of forecast information, not a fixed forecast — they can shift rapidly as models and observations change.
Settlement will follow the contract’s specified official data source and station/time window — check the market’s full rules on KALSHI for the exact observing station, measurement standard (e.g., NWS official site), and the time period used to identify the daily maximum.
The contract’s settlement rules will describe procedures for missing or quality-controlled data (for example, fallback stations, use of reanalysis, or voiding options). Consult the market’s terms on the platform before trading to understand how such cases are handled.
Broad-scale trends start to emerge about a week out, but confident predictions for a single-day high typically strengthen in the 2–5 day window as high-resolution and ensemble model runs converge; last-minute synoptic changes can still alter outcomes.
Traders typically watch operational models (e.g., high-resolution convection-allowing models, global ensembles), National Weather Service forecasts and local forecast discussions, near-real-time surface observations, satellite and radar for cloud/precip signals, and sea-surface temperature/nearshore observations for Gulf influence.
Rapid mesoscale or synoptic events can shift the expected daytime maximum substantially between model runs; markets often move quickly when new model guidance, radar evidence, or NWS updates indicate an advancing front, convective coverage, or abrupt wind-direction change that alters heating potential.