| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston, Texas, on April 3, 2026. Precise temperature forecasting is essential for energy demand management, urban planning, and agricultural risk assessment.
April in Houston marks the transition from spring to the early heat of summer, with temperatures typically ranging between the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit. Historical data shows significant volatility during this month due to competing influences from continental air masses and Gulf of Mexico moisture. Meteorological patterns such as El Niño or La Niña cycles can influence these localized shifts, making daily temperature predictions a complex task for climatologists.
Market prices represent the collective outlook of participants on which temperature range is most likely to be observed, reflecting current long-range climate models and seasonal trends.
The official reading is based on the data reported by the National Weather Service (NWS) for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) station.
The market resolution is governed by the specific range definitions provided in the contract; traders should verify if the ranges are inclusive or exclusive of the boundary values.
Houston’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provides a cooling maritime influence, but inland shifts can lead to rapid warming depending on wind direction and humidity.
Yes, unseasonable weather systems, such as late-season cold fronts or premature heat waves, can cause significant deviations from the historical average.
The primary source of truth is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the National Weather Service (NWS) climate records for IAH.