| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 98% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be recorded as the highest temperature in Denver on March 9, 2026; outcomes let traders express expectations about that day’s peak warmth. It matters because daily maximum temperature on a single date is influenced by fast-changing weather drivers and is relevant to weather-sensitive decisions and hedging.
Denver's early-March weather sits in the transition between winter and spring, so synoptic-scale patterns (Pacific jet position, ridges vs. troughs) and local effects (downslope orographic warming, snow cover) can produce large swings from one year to the next. Historical records show large day-to-day variability in March, and single-day weather markets like this reflect that volatility and the possibility of both late-winter cold and early-spring warmth.
Market prices represent traders’ collective judgment about which temperature range is most likely given current information and update as forecasts and observations change. To interpret movement, watch changes in price alongside new model runs, observations, and any official rule updates on settlement.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the exchange will publish a firm close time on the market page. Traders should check the market page or exchange notices for the confirmed trading cutoff before Mar 9, 2026.
Settlement will use the official maximum temperature observation reported by the designated official weather station listed in the market rules (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station serving Denver). Consult the market's settlement rules for the precise station and observational definition used for this contract.
Exchanges typically follow their published settlement procedures: they either wait for the final quality-controlled official value from the designated source or apply predefined fallback rules if data are missing. Check the market’s settlement policy for specifics on delays and revisions.
Chinook/downslope winds on the lee side of the Rockies can cause rapid, localized warming across the Denver area and materially raise the daily maximum. If such winds are forecast or observed on Mar 9, they are a primary driver that can push the day’s peak higher than synoptic temperatures alone would suggest.
Historical climatology provides a baseline for typical variability in early March but does not predict a single year’s outcome; use it to understand the range of plausible temperatures and then combine that context with current weather-model forecasts, snow-cover observations, and synoptic trends leading up to Mar 9, 2026.