| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 57° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain Denver’s daily maximum on March 8, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability in the Denver area.
Early March in Denver is a transition month with large day-to-day swings driven by Pacific storms, Arctic intrusions, and warm downslope (Chinook) events. Local factors—high elevation, urban heat effects, and recent snow cover—can all push the day’s maximum well above or below seasonal norms, so outcomes can move quickly as forecasts update.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about the most likely high temperature outcome and will update as new model guidance and observations arrive; they should be read as a consensus signal that changes with incoming data.
The contract’s resolution rules specify the official source and station used for settlement (typically an official NWS/NOAA observing station). Check the market description for the exact station and data feed referenced for final determination.
The market will resolve based on the local calendar day defined in the contract (local time zone). Confirm the precise start and end times in the event’s rules on the market page before trading.
The units used for settlement are specified in the contract description. Many U.S.-based weather contracts use Fahrenheit, but always verify the unit on the event page to avoid unit-mismatch errors.
A strong Chinook can rapidly raise daytime highs by warming and drying downslope air, while a frontal passage with clouds or snow reduces daytime heating and suppresses highs. Traders watch model runs and surface observations for signs of these phenomena when pricing the event.
Settlement follows the procedure established in the contract, which typically relies on official observations as posted by the designated data provider. Any post-event corrections are handled according to those predefined resolution rules, so review them to understand how late adjustments are treated.