| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $45K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Denver will be on March 7, 2026. It matters because it aggregates forecasts and information from many participants, providing a continually updated consensus view of near-term weather for that specific date.
Denver sits at high elevation with large day-to-day swings in early March as winter transitions to spring, so temperatures on a single date can vary widely depending on synoptic patterns. Long-term climate trends and variability (seasonal storms, late cold snaps, or early warm spells) shape the baseline expectation, while short-term weather systems determine the exact outcome. This market converts those meteorological drivers into tradable outcomes tied to the date in question.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders and respond to new observations and model updates; they are not guarantees of an outcome. Use them alongside official forecasts and real-time weather products to form a view of the likely temperature range for that day.
The official close time is listed on the market page and is currently TBD; check the market contract for the final trading cutoff, which is typically set before the observation period begins.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature categories (bins) that cover the range of possible highest temperatures for Denver on March 7, 2026; the market page shows the exact boundaries and labels for each outcome.
Settlement will use the official temperature reported by the designated observing station and data source specified in the contract terms (the market page names the exact station and reporting method; for Denver this is commonly the official NWS climate site).
Historical March 7 temperatures provide context about typical seasonal ranges and variability and can inform prior expectations, but year-to-year weather patterns and short-term forecasts are usually decisive for the actual outcome.
Key movers include deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., major global and regional models), NWS forecast updates and short-term advisories, new upper-air soundings and surface observations, and any sudden changes in the timing or intensity of frontal passages or downslope wind events.