| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $313K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 6, 2026. It matters to people and businesses with weather-sensitive exposures and to anyone watching short-term climate variability in a major mountain‑front city.
Denver in early March sits at the junction of mountain influences and continental weather systems, so day‑to‑day temperatures can swing widely depending on frontal passages and downslope (chinook) winds. Seasonal climate context (e.g., recent snow cover, large‑scale patterns) and short‑range weather systems both shape the likely range of outcomes for a single date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and will shift as new forecasts and observations arrive; use them as a real‑time consensus signal rather than a guaranteed forecast. Always check the contract text to see what observation source and settlement rules the market will use.
Settlement depends on the exchange's contract text — many weather contracts use National Weather Service/NOAA observations at Denver International Airport or the official local ASOS/METAR station. Check the market's rules to confirm the specified station and data feed used for settlement.
Most markets use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the specified observation site, but you must confirm in the contract whether local time, UTC, or a specific observation window is used for settlement.
Exchanges usually rely on the official recorded maximum from the designated observing system (often the highest instantaneous or minute‑based observation used by ASOS/METAR), but the contract should state whether any averaging or quality control applies.
Some exchanges allow a short verification/appeals window and follow the final official dataset; if the official source publishes corrected values, the contract's settlement policy will govern whether and how those corrections affect the outcome.
Watch high‑resolution model runs (e.g., hourly convection‑allowing models), NWS Denver forecast discussions, surface observations and temperatures, mountain wind forecasts for potential chinook events, and satellite/radar trends for cloud cover and frontal timing.