| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or below | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 27% | 26¢ | 29¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 40% | 40¢ | 41¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 17% | 18¢ | 22¢ | — | $605 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 7% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $570 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Denver on March 5, 2026. It matters because traders aggregate weather forecasts and local climate information into a single, tradable expectation for that specific date.
Denver weather in early March is highly variable: Pacific storm tracks, intrusions of Arctic air, and occasional Chinook wind events can all produce very different outcomes from one year to the next. Long‑term warming trends change the baseline climate but day‑to‑day synoptic weather remains the dominant driver of the single‑day maximum. The market is hosted on Kalshi and currently shows modest liquidity, which affects how quickly new information is incorporated.
Market prices represent the consensus view among traders about which temperature range is most likely to occur on that date and update as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as a live, crowd‑sourced forecast snapshot rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The market's listed close is currently TBD; check the market page for updates. Typically, markets like this close sometime before or on the observation date, and the exact cut‑off is set by the contract terms shown on the Kalshi page.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges or bins that partition possible maximum temperatures for Denver on March 5, 2026. The precise numeric thresholds for each outcome are shown in the contract description on the market page.
The contract specifies the official data source used for settlement (for example, a specific NOAA/NWS station or the official airport observation). Always confirm the named station and measurement protocol in the market’s settlement rules before trading, because settlement depends on that exact source.
Settlement timing depends on the market’s rules but usually occurs after the official daily summary for March 5 has been published and validated; that can take from a day to a few days. The market page will show the settlement policy and any expected timing details.
Consider Denver’s high inter‑daily variability in early March, the historical range of highs for that date, and recent climate trends that shift the baseline. Also review how often strong Chinook events or late‑winter cold snaps have affected maximum temperatures on comparable dates.