| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 69% | 68¢ | 70¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 29% | 28¢ | 29¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest temperature recorded in Denver on March 4, 2026; it matters to participants who trade weather exposure or follow short-term climate variability in the region.
Early March in Denver is a transitional period with high day-to-day variability driven by synoptic-scale patterns and occasional downslope warming (Chinook) events. Local factors such as recent snowfall, cloud cover, and the specific observing station can produce meaningful differences from climatological averages.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which temperature outcome will be realized; they should be read as a consensus signal informed by forecasts and observations rather than a guaranteed prediction.
The contract on the market page specifies the official observing station (for example, the National Weather Service station used for Denver) and the precise measurement window; consult the market rules for the exact station identifier and start/end times.
The market page lists the trading close and settlement schedule; since this listing shows 'Closes: TBD', monitor the market for a posted close time — settlement typically occurs after the relevant day's official temperature data are published.
New model runs, ensemble spreads, and authoritative forecast updates (e.g., from the NWS) change traders' expectations and can move prices quickly, especially within the 48–72 hour window before the target date.
Settlement procedures are defined in the contract and commonly include fallback rules such as using nearby authoritative stations, quality-controlled revisions, or delayed settlement until corrected data are available; check the market rules for specific dispute resolution protocols.
Use historical climatology to understand typical variability and the frequency of warm or cold events, but combine that context with current forecasts, model ensembles, and surface observations because early March can produce both winterlike and unusually warm days.