| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature measured in Denver on March 3, 2026 will be, with traders buying outcomes that correspond to different temperature ranges. It matters for weather-sensitive planning and for participants who trade or hedge based on short-term temperature risk.
Denver in early March is in a transitional season with large day-to-day variability driven by Pacific storm systems, interior troughs, and occasional warm chinook winds. Local factors such as elevation, snow cover, and cloudiness strongly affect daytime maxima, so short-range forecasts and the exact timing of systems are critical. Single‑date contracts like this are resolved against a specific observing station and thus hinge on the official recorded value for that station on the date in question.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which temperature range is most likely given current forecasts and information; they update as weather models and observations change. Use prices to gauge market consensus and to compare against independent forecasts, remembering that prices are not guarantees but aggregated signals.
The market page currently lists the close time as TBD; the platform operator will publish a firm closing time on the market page before trading ends. Markets of this type typically close before the observation period starts to avoid insider information affecting prices.
The contract will be settled using the official data source specified in the market's resolution rules on the platform; that designation (for example, a National Weather Service station or the official airport observing site) is listed on the market details and determines the measuring instrument and station.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges listed on the market page; the outcome whose range contains the official highest temperature recorded at the designated station on March 3, 2026 will be declared the winning outcome.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs for storm track and frontal timing, forecast winds (especially downslope/chinook events), snow cover analyses, and cloud/insolation trends — changes in any of these can materially alter the likely daytime maximum on that date.
Disputes are resolved according to the platform's published resolution and dispute policy; the operator will rely on the designated official observing agency's final archived observation for March 3, 2026 and follow the platform's appeal process if needed.