| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Denver will be on March 28, 2026. It matters to people and organizations with weather-sensitive operations (events, energy load planning, travel) and provides a real-time snapshot of collective expectations about that day's weather.
Late March in Denver is a transitional period with large day-to-day swings driven by passing storm systems, dry downslope (Chinook) events, and the retreat of winter snowpack. Seasonal climate signals and long-term warming set a background trend, but short-term synoptic patterns dominate what actually happens on a particular date. Forecast models and observations in the days immediately before March 28 will therefore be most informative.
Market prices reflect the aggregation of trader beliefs and incoming information and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic, consensus indicator of expectation rather than as an authoritative meteorological forecast.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the market will specify a closing time and a settlement procedure prior to resolution. Check the market's event page for the official close and settlement timestamps.
The market's resolution rules on the event page identify the official data source used for settlement. If the source is not explicitly stated there, the operator typically uses an authoritative meteorological station (for example, the official Denver station used by national weather services); verify the event's resolution text to be certain.
Markets commonly define it as the maximum air temperature recorded by the specified official station during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) as measured by that station's instrumentation. Confirm the exact definition and time window in the event's resolution rules.
A persistent upper-level ridge with southerly flow, clear skies, strong daytime solar heating, and downslope Chinook winds are the primary drivers of unusually warm highs in late March; absence of snow cover also amplifies daytime warming.
Broad synoptic tendencies can be anticipated several days in advance, but useful day-to-day detail usually emerges in the 1–3 days before the target date as models converge and observations refine the forecast; expect market signals to sharpen as March 28 approaches and new model runs are released.