| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 25, 2026. It matters for traders and observers because a single-day high reflects short-term weather dynamics and can be sensitive to rapidly changing conditions in early spring.
Late March is a transitional period in Denver, when winter-like intrusions and warm, downslope Chinook events are both possible, producing large day-to-day swings. Official temperature records for Denver are maintained by the National Weather Service and local observing stations, and single-day extremes are often driven by short-lived synoptic features rather than long-term trends.
Prices or odds in this market reflect the collective expectation of participants about which temperature range will be realized on that specific date and will update as forecasts and observations evolve. They indicate relative market sentiment, not definitive forecasts, and should be interpreted alongside official meteorological data and model guidance.
The market will settle to the single highest official air temperature recorded during the local calendar day of March 25, 2026, as reported by the designated official observing station used by the exchange—typically the National Weather Service–designated Denver station. Consult the market rules or resolution source on the event page to confirm the exact station and data provider.
The event listing shows the close time as TBD; the exchange will post a specific trading deadline. Resolution occurs after the official observation for March 25 is available and any platform-specific waiting period or verification has passed—check the market’s timeline and resolution policy on the platform.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive buckets that partition the possible highest-temperature values for March 25, 2026. Buying an outcome expresses the belief that the day’s observed peak temperature will fall within that bucket; exactly one outcome will be declared the winner when official data are applied.
Resolution follows the exchange’s published data and dispute rules: if the primary official data source is missing or revised, the platform will apply its backup data or adjudication procedures as specified in the event rules. Ties are unlikely for a single recorded maximum but will be resolved according to the market’s published resolution policy.
Monitor short-range numerical weather prediction (e.g., HRRR, NAM, GFS), the National Weather Service forecast/aviation forecasts for Denver, latest surface observations from Denver stations, satellite and radar for cloud cover and fronts, and local snow-cover analyses; also watch mesoscale indicators like downslope wind forecasts that can produce rapid warming.