| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest official temperature recorded in Denver on March 23, 2026; it matters because day-to-day temperature extremes affect energy use, public safety, and local operations. Market prices provide a continually updated aggregate view of expectations for that specific date.
Denver's weather in late March is highly variable: the city can see late-season snow, mild spring days, or abrupt warmings driven by downslope (Chinook) winds. Regional storm tracks, Pacific air masses, and local snowpack all combine to produce substantial day-to-day swings that make a single-date temperature market informative and tradable.
Odds on this market reflect the aggregate expectation of traders and will change as new forecasts, observations, and model runs arrive; use them as a real-time summary of market sentiment while consulting the market rules for settlement specifics.
The market close time is listed on the KALSHI contract page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after March 23 once the specified official data source posts its final daily observation—check the contract for the exact settlement timeline.
The contract specifies the official data source and station used for settlement (for example, a National Weather Service or designated climate station); review the market description on KALSHI to see which station and dataset apply.
Resolution is based on the specific measurement location named in the contract—most such markets use a single official station rather than an area-average of the whole metro; verify the chosen station in the contract details.
New model output, updated observations, or a front changing track can shift trader expectations quickly; these updates typically move market prices as participants revise their views about the likely daily maximum.
Tie-breaking and exact resolution procedures depend on the settlement rules in the contract—common approaches use the official daily maximum as reported by the chosen data source or other platform-specified rules, so consult the contract for specifics.