| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 21, 2026. Outcomes matter for weather-sensitive businesses, traders, and anyone tracking short-term temperature risk or verification of forecasts.
Late March in Denver is a high-variability period: the city sits at high elevation and is subject to rapid transitions between cold continental air and warm downslope winds (Chinooks), producing large day-to-day swings. Official daily maxima are reported by designated observing stations and can be influenced by local site conditions, synoptic setup, and transient mesoscale features.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which temperature range will contain the day's maximum at the designated Denver reporting site; prices update as forecasts, observations, and new information arrive and should be read as a summary of those expectations rather than a deterministic forecast.
Settlement relies on the specific official observing station and dataset named in the market's rulebook; that is typically the National Weather Service/NOAA daily observation for Denver—consult the market rules page to confirm the exact station and source used.
The event uses the local calendar date for Denver (local Mountain time) as defined in the market rules; the highest temperature is the maximum reported for that local date at the designated station.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bin or exact value range shown on the market page; after the official maximum temperature for the date is determined, the outcome whose range contains that measured value will be declared the winning outcome.
Markets follow the settlement procedures stated in their rules: settlement uses the official final value or the reporting authority specified there. If revisions or QC procedures alter the reported maximum, the market will settle according to the final dataset and timeline described in the rulebook.
Key short-term signals include the arrival or strengthening of downslope winds, rapid shifts in cloud cover, arrival of a frontal boundary or precipitation, and verification of ensemble model runs or high-resolution mesoscale forecasts that adjust temperature timing and magnitude.