| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcomes will contain the highest recorded air temperature in Denver on March 19, 2026. It matters because daily peak temperatures affect energy use, transportation planning, and short-term economic activity in the region.
Denver's early-spring temperatures can swing rapidly due to its elevation, chinook winds, and the interplay of Pacific and Arctic air masses. Historical variability around mid-March includes both late-winter cold snaps and unseasonably warm days, so forecast models and synoptic setup in the days before the 19th are especially influential. The market settles against an official observational data source specified in the event rules, so check that source for exact measurement practices.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which outcome will contain the day's maximum temperature and update as forecasts and observations change. They are indicators of consensus, not guarantees; consult the event's settlement rules to understand exactly how the winning outcome is determined.
Settlement will follow the market's published rules: typically the highest official air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated observation station named on the event page. Always confirm the named station and time standard on the event page for this market.
The event's settlement documentation names the specific station or provider (for example, an NWS/NOAA station that serves Denver); check the event page to see the exact data source used for this market.
Resolution timing depends on when the designated data provider publishes the final daily summary and the market's settlement schedule; the event page will state any expected resolution delay or post-publication waiting period.
The market creator divided possible daily maxima into six discrete outcomes (bins or specific values). The event page lists the exact labels and cutoffs for each of the six outcomes—refer to those labels to understand what each outcome represents.
Short-term drivers include passage of warm or cold fronts, development of a high-amplitude ridge or trough, onset of chinook/downdraft winds, cloud cover and sunshine during peak heating hours, and recent snow cover; shifts in these factors in the days before the 19th will materially change forecasts.