| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Denver on March 18, 2026. It matters because it aggregates trader views about the specific day's weather and translates forecasts and uncertainty into tradeable outcomes.
Denver's March weather is transitional and highly variable; late-season cold snaps and rapid warming events both occur with some frequency. Local phenomena such as Chinook winds, snow cover, and synoptic-scale fronts have produced large day-to-day swings in past months and will influence conditions on March 18, 2026.
Market prices reflect the aggregated beliefs of participants about which outcome will occur at settlement and can move as new forecasts and observations arrive. Always consult the market's contract text for how outcomes are defined and what official data source will be used for settlement.
Settlement will use the specific official observation source and measurement method named in the contract text on the market page; traders should check that field because platforms typically designate an agency or station (for example, a NOAA/NWS or airport METAR-based source) to determine the day's maximum temperature.
The market close time is listed on the market page; this event currently shows the close as TBD, so monitor the market details for the announced timestamp and ensure trades are submitted before that time.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a discrete temperature bracket or label shown on the market page; the outcome whose bracket contains the observed highest temperature at settlement will be the winning outcome—refer to the market page for the exact bracket boundaries.
The contract will specify the observation window, but typically the highest temperature refers to the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day for Denver (Mountain Time); because March 18, 2026 falls after the U.S. spring DST change, confirm whether the contract uses MST/MDT and whether the day is midnight-to-midnight local time.
Rapid onset of Chinook winds or a strong clear-sky high-pressure ridge can push temperatures well above seasonal norms, while an unforecast cold frontal passage, lingering cloud cover, or extensive snow cover can keep the maximum unusually low.