| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest observed air temperature in Denver on March 16, 2026. The outcome matters for traders and stakeholders who hedge weather risk or want to track how forecasts evolve for a specific date.
Denver in mid‑March sits in a transitional season: strong swings between cold Pacific air and warm, downslope Chinook events are common. Synoptic patterns, snow cover in the foothills, and short‑term storm timing all contribute to large day‑to‑day variability; markets like this summarize collective expectations about those influences.
Market prices reflect the consensus view about which temperature range will be realized and update as new forecast data and observations arrive. Use the market as a real‑time signal of changing expectations, and always check the market’s settlement rules for the official data source and timing.
Settlement uses the official observation source specified in the Kalshi market rules for this event; that is typically the primary National Weather Service/NOAA reporting station representing Denver. Consult the market page for the precise designated station or dataset.
The measured highest temperature normally refers to the calendar day in local Denver time as defined by the market’s settlement rules (local 00:00–23:59, accounting for daylight‑saving offset). Confirm the market page for the definitive time convention used.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges listed on the market page; the official highest observed temperature is placed into the range that contains it for final settlement.
The market follows the data and revision policy defined in its settlement rules. In practice, final quality‑controlled observations from the designated source are used; check the event’s rules for the timeline for accepting revisions or handling delayed reports.
Monitor large‑scale model trends for ridging or troughing over the West, model forecasts of downslope wind events (Chinooks), short‑range ensemble spreads for temperature and cloud cover, and observations of snow cover in the foothills—these drive the biggest changes in expected daily maximums.