| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest official air temperature recorded in Denver will be on March 14, 2026. It matters to traders and observers because the outcome reflects short‑term weather extremes that affect energy use, travel, and local operations.
Mid‑March in Denver is a highly variable time of year: conditions can range from late‑winter cold to surprisingly warm afternoons depending on synoptic patterns and local winds. Denver's high elevation and proximity to the Rockies mean rapid temperature swings are common, and long‑term warming trends increase the chance of warm anomalies but do not determine a single day's result.
Market prices (odds) aggregate participant expectations about meteorology, recent model forecasts, and climatology; they update as new weather model runs and observations become available. Use prices as a summary of collective expectation, not as a deterministic forecast.
The outcome typically uses the local civil date from 00:00 through 23:59 local time at the official observation site; check the contract's settlement rules to confirm the precise timezone and window the market will use.
Settlement depends on the data source named in the market contract; many Denver temperature contracts use the official National Weather Service observations at the designated Denver station. Verify the specific station or dataset listed in the market rules before trading.
The market's published settlement provisions describe tie‑breakers and procedures for missing or invalid observations (for example, use of the next best official dataset or an alternate verification method). Review those rules early because they determine how edge cases are resolved.
A persistent upper‑level ridge, a warm sector with strong southwesterly flow ahead of a front, or strong downslope Chinook winds can elevate temperatures well above seasonal normals in the days and hours leading up to Mar 14.
Price shifts reflect new model runs, observation trends, and changing certainty about timing and strength of synoptic features; treating prices as a continuously updating forecast is useful, and you should check when model ensemble updates or key forecast windows (e.g., 48–72 hour runs) occur.