| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 95% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several temperature ranges will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Denver on March 11, 2026. It matters to traders and planners because daily high temperatures reflect short-term weather extremes and can affect energy demand, transportation, and outdoor activities.
Denver sits near the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains, so weather on a given March day can swing from cold, snowy conditions to unusually warm, chinook-driven surges. Markets like this combine climatology (typical March variability) with short-term forecasts to create tradable outcomes. The market’s reported volume and active positions reflect participants’ differing views of synoptic-scale drivers in the days leading up to the date.
Odds in this market summarize the balance of money and beliefs among traders about which outcome will occur; they change as new information (forecasts, observations) arrives. For resolution, consult the market rules to see which official observing site and time window will be used.
Resolution uses the official observing source named in the market’s rules—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA reporting station specified for Denver (check the market page for the exact station). The market pays out based on the single highest reported air temperature from that official source during the market’s defined local date window.
The relevant period is the local calendar date as defined by the resolution source (usually 00:00 to 23:59 local time at the designated station). Confirm the market’s rule text for any explicit timezone or cutoff language.
If the primary station’s data are unavailable, the market resolves according to the contingency procedures in its rules—commonly using a nearby official station, archived NCEI data, or arbitration by the platform. Always review the market’s dispute and resolution clauses before trading.
A chinook can produce rapid, large daytime temperature increases that push the daily high well above typical values; conversely, extensive snow cover and cloudy conditions suppress daytime heating and can keep the high much lower. Both processes are local and can change the expected outcome even within a day or two.
Watch short-range model runs (including ensembles), mesoscale forecasts for downslope winds, updated NWS forecasts and AFDs for Denver, satellite and radar for cloud trends, and surface observations and snow-cover reports. Also check the market page for any updates to resolution rules or close times.