| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Denver on March 10, 2026; it matters because daily maximum temperatures affect energy demand, travel safety, and local planning. Traders use available weather information to express expectations about that single calendar-day outcome.
Denver in early March sits in a highly variable transitional season, with potential for cold Pacific storms, late-season snow, or warm downslope Chinook events; year-to-year variability is large. Climate trends have increased the frequency of warm anomalies in many regions, but any single-date outcome is driven mainly by synoptic-scale weather patterns in the days just before March 10. Historical March 10 observations provide context but do not determine this specific date's result.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants given current forecasts, observations, and news; they update as new model runs and observations become available. Use them as a snapshot of collective belief, not as definitive predictions.
Settlement normally uses the official meteorological observation designated in the contract (typically the NOAA/NWS official station for the Denver area, such as the Denver International Airport observation); consult the event contract for the exact station and measurement protocol.
Resolution occurs after the official daily observations for March 10, 2026 are published by the designated data provider; the market's official close time may be set by the platform and any final settlement uses the provider's published daily maximum.
The six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature ranges (bins) covering possible highest temperatures on that date; the contract page lists the exact numeric boundaries for each bin.
The platform relies on the authoritative observational source named in the contract—usually NOAA/NWS daily summaries or an equivalent official station report—and follows the contract’s dispute and verification procedures if necessary.
As forecast model runs, satellite imagery, and surface observations update, market participants will revise expectations; rapid changes in model consensus or new synoptic developments (e.g., an incoming front or a Chinook event) can shift market prices in the days and hours prior to the date.