| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded at Denver International Airport for April 19, 2026. Weather derivatives like this allow participants to hedge against or speculate on climate volatility in the Denver metropolitan area.
Denver’s spring climate is notoriously volatile, characterized by rapid shifts between late-season snowstorms and unseasonably warm fronts driven by the Rocky Mountains. Historical data for mid-April shows a wide variance in temperature outcomes, making this date a test of regional meteorological patterns. These variables are influenced by seasonal transitions, mountain wave effects, and broader Pacific climate oscillations.
The market outcomes represent the collective sentiment on where the official high temperature will fall within designated ranges, reflecting expectations based on historical climate norms and long-range meteorological models.
The official high temperature is determined by data reported by the National Weather Service (NWS) specifically from the Denver International Airport station.
Denver's proximity to the Rocky Mountains creates complex microclimates where air masses can change rapidly, often leading to sudden temperature spikes or drops regardless of the season.
The market relies on the official, finalized data released by the National Weather Service or its authorized reporting body; adjustments made by these agencies after the fact are generally treated as the final settlement value.
The high temperature is typically recorded during daylight hours, though it can theoretically occur at any time within the 24-hour period of April 19, 2026, depending on frontal passages.
The buckets are structured based on historical frequency distributions, allowing participants to bet on whether the day will be cooler, average, or warmer than the historical median for April 19.