| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | 20% | 19¢ | 27¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 3% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 44% | 41¢ | 42¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 6% | 6¢ | 11¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 20% | 20¢ | 24¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will represent the highest observed temperature in Dallas on March 9, 2026. It matters for traders, forecasters, energy demand planners, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk in the Dallas area.
Early March in Dallas is a transitional period when large swings are common: warm southern air masses can bring unseasonable warmth while cold fronts from the north can produce much cooler readings. Local climatology, recent trends, and large-scale patterns (for example ENSO phase and regional jet stream position) all influence the likelihood of warm or cool outcomes.
Market prices reflect aggregate expectations about which outcome will occur based on available observations and forecasts; they are not guarantees. For exact settlement definitions and authoritative values, consult the contract text and the designated official observation source named on the event page.
The event settles to the highest temperature reported by the designated official source listed in the contract text on the event page; typically this is the National Weather Service/NOAA climate station specified for Dallas. Check the contract text for the exact station name and data source.
‘On Mar 9, 2026’ generally refers to the 24‑hour local date for the designated observation site (beginning at 00:00 and ending at 23:59 local time), but the contract text defines the official time window. Refer to the event page for the precise settlement window.
The contract specifies the temperature units (typically degrees Fahrenheit for U.S. city markets) and any rounding or resolution rules; consult the event's settlement rules for whether values are rounded to whole degrees or reported to a decimal place.
Settlement procedures for ties, missing observations, or out‑of‑range values are defined in the contract; common approaches include using the official daily summary, applying a backup station, or voiding/adjusing outcome resolution per the platform's dispute rules. Check the event page for those specific tie‑break and contingency rules.
Settlement occurs after the designated official source publishes its daily summary for March 9, 2026 and after any platform‑specified verification window; the settled value and settlement timestamp will be posted on the event page or the platform's settlement log. Review the event page for the expected settlement timeline and notification procedures.