| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed air temperature in Dallas will be on March 8, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, weather-sensitive operations, and local planning.
Early March in the Dallas area is a transitional period when strong cold fronts can produce rapid temperature swings and warm Pacific or Gulf air masses can produce unseasonably mild days. Weather on a single date reflects a mix of synoptic-scale patterns (fronts, ridges), local mesoscale effects, and where the official observing station sits relative to urban heat influences.
Market prices aggregate traders' interpretations of available forecasts and observations; they move as new model runs, observations, or reports arrive, and should be read as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed prediction.
The market resolves to the value specified by its resolution source and rules; typically this is the maximum air temperature recorded for the calendar day at the specified official station, but you must check the event's resolution text to confirm the precise measurement definition (instantaneous vs. hourly, station listed, and time standard).
The market’s event description or resolution clause names the official source and station; if not shown, the market will usually rely on the National Weather Service / NOAA designated Dallas metro observing site specified by the operator—consult the event details to identify the exact station used for settlement.
Because clocks spring forward on that date, timestamp conventions can matter; the market will follow the timestamp/observation-day definition in its resolution terms (usually the local calendar day as defined by the designated observing agency), so check those terms for how DST transitions are handled in settlement.
Resolution procedures are specified in the market rules: common contingencies include using alternate nearby official stations, using final quality‑controlled agency datasets (e.g., NCEI), or following an arbitration process; review the event’s resolution clause for the exact fallback and correction policy.
Settlement timing depends on when the designated data provider publishes the final value; the settled outcome and source will be posted on the market page after the operator applies the specified resolution procedure—monitor the event page for the official settlement announcement.