| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in the Dallas area will be on March 7, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, public health messaging, and short-term economic activity in the region.
Early March in North Texas is a transitional period when the region can see large swings between warm and cool conditions driven by the timing of frontal passages. Historical records and recent seasonal trends give context, but day-to-day weather is controlled by synoptic-scale patterns and local mesoscale effects. The market uses an official observational source specified in the contract to determine the settlement value.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed on that calendar day. To interpret prices, focus on how new weather model runs, observations, and front timing shift market consensus over time rather than on any static number.
The contract is settled to the official observational source named in the market rules on KALSHI; that typically references an NWS official station or ASOS/AWOS site in the Dallas metro area. Check the contract description or settlement/source link on the exchange for the exact station and dataset.
Settlement usually follows the calendar day in local time as defined in the contract (local 00:00 to 23:59), but exact definitions can vary; consult the market's settlement rules on KALSHI to confirm the start/end times and any time zone conventions.
The contract's settlement rules specify fallback procedures and alternative sources in case of missing or erroneous data. Review those contingency clauses in the market description to see which provider or definition will be used if the primary station fails.
Short- to medium-range guidance (high-resolution models and ensembles such as HRRR, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF) and real-time surface observations are most relevant because timing of fronts, cloud cover, and mesoscale boundaries strongly influence daytime highs. Watch model consensus and trend changes in the 48–72 hour window before the date.
Assessing unusualness requires comparing the outcome to long-term climatology for early March at the specified reporting station; climatological normals and historical daily records from NOAA or the local NWS office provide that context. The market's outcome can then be interpreted relative to that climatology.