| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 38% | 28¢ | 37¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 38% | 29¢ | 39¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 17% | 11¢ | 24¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest observed air temperature in Dallas on March 6, 2026; it matters for local energy demand, public safety planning, and short-term weather risk management.
Early March in North Texas is a transitional period when warm Gulf air can clash with late-season cold fronts, producing large day-to-day swings in high temperatures. This contract has six discrete outcomes representing different temperature ranges; traders will update expectations as model forecasts and observations evolve.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about the day’s maximum observed temperature as defined by the contract’s resolution rules; changes in forecasts, observations, and official reports typically drive price movement.
The market close time is set by the KALSHI contract and currently listed as TBD; check the event page or contract rules on the KALSHI platform for the official trading close and resolution timeline.
The contract’s resolution section specifies the exact data source and observing station (for example, a named NOAA/NWS station or other official source); consult the contract text on KALSHI to see the designated official source and measurement definition.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range defined in the contract; the outcome that contains the officially reported daily maximum air temperature for March 6, 2026, as measured by the designated source, is declared the winning outcome.
Settlement follows the revision and dispute rules laid out in the contract: some contracts accept official post-publication corrections up to a specified cutoff, while others use the first published official value—refer to the contract’s resolution policy for details.
Monitor NWS forecast discussions for the Dallas area, short-range models (WRF, HRRR), global models (ECMWF, GFS), surface analyses, satellite imagery, and local station METARs/observations to track frontal timing, cloud cover, and any convective development that could change the daytime maximum.