| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 7% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 37% | 33¢ | 37¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 5% | 6¢ | 10¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 41% | 42¢ | 49¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will correspond to the highest air temperature recorded in Dallas on March 5, 2026. It matters because temperature extremes influence local energy demand, public events, and short-term weather risk management.
Early March in North Texas is a transitional period when warm and cold air masses frequently compete, so temperatures can swing based on synoptic-scale patterns. Historical variability, upper-level ridging or troughing, and mesoscale features all affect daily maxima, making this a naturally uncertain, short-term forecasting question on the platform.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which predefined temperature outcome will occur; prices move as new observational data and forecast model runs become available. Use prices as a continuously updated signal of collective short-term expectation, not as definitive forecasts.
The market’s contract page lists the official data source and station used for settlement; check that listing because settlement will follow the named official observation (for example an NWS ASOS/METAR station) and its published practices.
The six discrete outcomes and their temperature thresholds are specified on the market’s outcome list on the trading page; consult that page to see how the overall temperature range is partitioned for this event.
The listed close time is on the event page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the final official observation for March 5 has been published and any verification window in the contract has elapsed—refer to the contract’s settlement rules for timing.
Tie-breaking and handling of multiple equal maxima are governed by the contract’s settlement procedures; those procedures may specify using the official time-stamped observations from the designated station or another defined tie rule—check the market rules for the exact method.
Monitor NWS forecasts and briefings for North Texas, deterministic and ensemble model runs (short-range guidance), hourly surface observations, radar for precipitation trends, and forecasts of cloud cover and frontal timing, since changes in those elements are the main drivers of the daily maximum.