| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several temperature outcome buckets will contain the highest observed temperature in Dallas on March 3, 2026; it matters because traders aggregate available weather information and expectations into market prices that reflect collective judgment about that day's temperature.
Dallas weather in early March is seasonally transitional, with temperature swings driven by the timing of frontal passages and Gulf moisture. Short-term forecasts, model runs, and synoptic-scale patterns (cold fronts, ridges, or low-pressure systems) set the immediate context for expected highs on a given day. The contract is offered on the Kalshi platform and has six discrete outcomes specified on the event page.
In this setting, market prices reflect the level of trader support for each outcome; relatively higher prices imply stronger market expectation that the corresponding temperature range will be the observed maximum, while lower prices imply less support.
Kalshi will settle the contract according to the official source and station listed on the market’s contract page; check the contract description for the exact observing station (for example an NWS or airport station) and the published source used for resolution.
The market's listed close time is shown on the Kalshi event page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation for March 3 is published and Kalshi completes its verification and settlement procedures—see the event page and Kalshi’s rules for exact timelines.
The six discrete outcomes and their exact temperature ranges are provided on the Kalshi contract page for this event; consult that page for the precise bucket boundaries and any inclusivity rules (e.g., whether endpoints are inclusive).
Use a combination of deterministic and ensemble model guidance, recent surface and upper-air observations, short-term nowcasts, and NWS forecasts to form an expectation of frontal timing, cloud cover, and moisture; cross-check those signals against the market's outcome bins and the contract’s observation window before acting.
Historical records illustrate the typical range and variability for early March in Dallas and can help you assess how unusual a candidate outcome would be, but each year’s synoptic setup (frontal timing, upper-level pattern, ENSO phase, etc.) is the primary determinant of the actual temperature on Mar 3, 2026.