| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Dallas on March 29, 2026 will be. Outcomes provide a market-based synthesis of forecasts and local observations that can inform planning for energy, events, and public safety.
Late March is a transitional month for Dallas, when large swings can occur due to passing cold fronts, warm ridges, and variable Gulf moisture. Long-term climate trends, seasonal teleconnections, and short-term synoptic patterns all influence how warm or cool a specific late-March day will be. Official surface observations from National Weather Service stations and airport sensors serve as the authoritative record for event resolution.
Market prices aggregate trader views and new meteorological information; they change as forecasts, model runs, and observations are updated. Treat market odds as a real-time summary of expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
The contract uses a specific official observation site defined by the market rules—typically an NWS-designated station or airport sensor; consult the KALSHI contract page for the exact station used to resolve this event.
Resolution will follow the market's stated rules; most weather contracts use the calendar date in local time (Central Time for Dallas), accounting for daylight saving if in effect—check the contract for the exact cutoff and resolution procedure.
Short‑range model updates, high-resolution ensembles, and new observations typically drive the largest price movements as they reduce uncertainty about frontal timing, cloud cover, and mesoscale features that determine the day’s peak temperature.
Tie-breaking and rounding conventions are specified in the contract’s settlement rules; in many markets the designated official station or the NWS observational record is the deciding source—review the event’s settlement specification for details.
Consider the wide late‑March variability in North Texas: strong spring fronts can produce rapid cooldowns while warm advection events can deliver above‑average warmth; also factor in recent local temperature trends and antecedent soil/moisture conditions that modulate daytime heating.