| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Dallas will be on March 28, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand forecasting, and climate monitoring. Traders aggregate forecasts and real‑time information into prices that reflect collective expectations about that day's maximum temperature.
Late March is a transitional period in North Texas when warm spring ridges and cool frontal systems both occur; outcomes can swing with the timing of a cold front, cloud cover, or convective rainfall. Historical seasonal averages provide context but each year's synoptic pattern — position of highs/lows, Gulf moisture return, and storm tracks — typically determines the actual maximum.
Market prices indicate the community’s consensus about which outcome bin is most likely given current forecasts and observations; they update as model runs, observations, and new meteorological information arrive. Use prices as a real‑time summary of forecast risk rather than a deterministic forecast.
The market resolves to the official observing source listed in the event rules; check the event resolution details on the platform for the designated station or dataset (often an NWS official station such as the primary Dallas metro observing site).
Resolution typically occurs after the full calendar day of observations is complete and the designated observing agency publishes final values; consult the event page for any specified cut‑off time and the platform’s resolution policy.
Resolution follows the platform’s contingency rules: they may use a backup official station, a quality‑controlled dataset, or an adjudication process described in the event's fine print—review those rules before trading.
Recent model runs (GFS, ECMWF, high‑resolution convection‑allowing models), real‑time surface and radiosonde observations, satellite/ radar trends, and any watches/warnings for precipitation or frontal passages will cause rapid repricing.
Use climatology as a baseline for what is typical, but weight it with current synoptic forecasts; late‑March variability is high, so prioritize recent model guidance and operational observations over long‑term averages.