| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Dallas, Texas on March 27, 2026. Outcomes matter for people and organizations sensitive to short-term temperature extremes (energy, outdoor events, agriculture) and for those testing weather-forecasting skill in a trading setting.
Late March in Dallas sits in a transition season where strong day-to-day swings are common: warm spring surges can push readings into unseasonable warmth, while returning cold fronts can produce much cooler conditions. Long-term seasonal warming trends shift climatological baselines slowly, but the day-to-day highest temperature is primarily determined by synoptic weather patterns and local mesoscale effects on the event date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which temperature range the highest observed reading will fall into; they are market signals synthesizing public forecasts and trader beliefs rather than official meteorological observations. The market resolves based on the official observation method and station specified in the event rules, so consult that resolution definition before trading.
The event resolves to the highest official air temperature measurement recorded within the location and time window defined in the market rules. Check the market's resolution clause to see which official station/network (for example an NWS/ASOS or specified mesonet station) and measurement method will be used.
This market's six discrete outcomes correspond to temperature ranges (bins) listed on the market page; when the official highest temperature is published for the specified station and date, the outcome whose range contains that value is the resolving outcome.
The platform determines the market close time; because it is listed as TBD, traders should monitor the market page for the announced close time—typically markets close before or at the start of the observation date to prevent trading on the actual outcome.
The market will resolve using the observational data source specified in its resolution rules (commonly an NWS/NOAA-certified station, ASOS, or a named mesonet site). If the market page does not list it, contact the platform or consult the event rules for the official source and tie-breaking procedures.
Short-range synoptic forecasts (front timing), high-resolution models (e.g., convection-allowing guidance), NWS official discussions, radar/satellite for real-time cloud and precipitation trends, and ensemble spread for uncertainty are all useful inputs for estimating the likely daytime maximum on March 27.