| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Dallas on March 26, 2026; it matters because weather extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and local planning. Traders use available forecasts and observations to express expectations about that single-day maximum.
Late March is a transitional period for North Texas, when the region can experience anything from cool, front-driven days to early spring warmth depending on large-scale patterns. Historic variability around this date is driven by frontal passages, Gulf moisture feed, and transient upper-level ridges or troughs; individual years have produced both unusually warm and unusually cool outcomes. Local observing practices and the choice of official weather station determine which measurement is used for resolution.
Market odds summarize how participants collectively value each discrete outcome given current information; they update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Odds are not guarantees, but they provide a continuously refreshed market view of which outcomes traders deem more or less likely.
The market resolves to the official highest temperature as defined by the contract's resolution clause, typically the daily maximum recorded by the designated official observing station (for example, an NWS official station) on March 26, 2026; check the contract text to see which station or dataset is specified.
Resolution occurs after the official daily observation for March 26, 2026 is published by the designated data provider; that often happens after the date ends and when the provider issues their final daily summary, so consult the contract for any explicit timing rules.
Tie-breaking and handling of simultaneous records follow the contract's resolution procedures and the conventions of the chosen data source; the contract should state whether ties are possible and how they affect outcome determination.
Yes—new model runs, radar trends, surface observations, and forecast adjustments can all influence trading and thus market prices up until market close or resolution, because traders incorporate incoming information to reassess which outcome is most plausible.
Different stations within the Dallas metro area (airport sites, urban stations) can record different maximums on the same day due to microclimates and siting; for meaningful historical comparisons and accurate interpretation, use the specific station or dataset named in the contract.