| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature observed in Dallas on March 24, 2026; it aggregates expectations about a specific weather extreme that can matter for energy demand, public health planning, and local operations.
Dallas sits in a climatological transition zone where late March can swing from cool, post-frontal conditions to early-season warmth depending on synoptic patterns. Short-term outcomes on a single date are driven by transient systems (fronts, ridges, Gulf moisture) even as long-term warming trends change the baseline for extremes. Understanding both recent model runs and climatology helps contextualize the market.
Market prices reflect collective market sentiment about which outcome will occur given available information; interpret them as a real-time synthesis of forecasts and information rather than an authoritative meteorological report. Always check the contract description for how the market defines and will verify the winning outcome.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; resolution will occur after March 24, 2026 once the official observation specified in the contract is available—check the market page for the exact close time and the resolution timeline.
The contract specifies the official observing station or dataset used for resolution (typically a named NWS/NOAA station or vetted dataset); consult the contract’s resolution source on the market page to see the exact station or dataset.
The six outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive temperature categories or bins defined by the contract; outcome labels on the market page show the mapping from observed temperature ranges to each outcome—review those labels before trading.
Some agencies provide preliminary observations followed by quality-controlled final values; the contract rules indicate whether resolution uses the preliminary or final value and specify any waiting period for revisions—see the contract terms for details.
Track short-range numerical weather prediction guidance and ensemble spreads, surface frontal forecasts and wind direction, cloud and precipitation trends from satellite/radar, local station observations in the 24–48 hours before the date, and official forecasts from the NWS/Dallas-Fort Worth office.